Consistent across the clip: position (holds dead-center even as the tracking marker drifts off it), a bright thermal core, and a dark rim/halo — characteristic of a discrete, solid object much hotter than its surroundings. Inconsistent: the silhouette morphs (narrow figure → bilobed → diamond). A true sphere would not change shape with time; the morphing argues for a rotating/tumbling non-spherical object seen at changing aspect — though at ~40–60px some apparent structure is also FLIR edge-bloom and compression. Net: a real, persistent, solid hot object whose 'shape' is unreliable as an identity cue.