UAP AnalysisIndependent · the declassified record

Chronology

1944–2025 · 212 records

Records by occurrence date. The distribution measures when records were created and retained, not sighting frequency. The mid-period minimum coincides with the interval between the closure of Project Blue Book (1969) and the establishment of AARO (2022), during which no standing collection program existed.

USAF investigation eraNo standing public program≈40-year record gapModern disclosure era1948 — Project Sign: First formal USAF UFO investigation1952 — Project Blue Book: USAF's long-running investigation begins1968 — Condon Report: Commissioned study; recommended ending inquiry1969 — Blue Book closed: No standing public program for ~40 years2017 — NYT / AATIP revealed: Modern disclosure era begins2020 — UAP Task Force: DoD stands up UAPTF2022 — AARO established: All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office1944: 1 record1945: 1 record1946: 1 record1947: 35 records1948: 24 records1949: 19 records1950: 5 records1952: 8 records1954: 10 records1956: 2 records1957: 7 records1958: 4 records1959: 1 record1963: 1 record1964: 1 record1965: 1 record1966: 2 records1969: 5 records1972: 7 records1973: 4 records1976: 2 records1977: 1 record1985: 1 record1986: 1 record1990: 1 record1994: 2 records2001: 1 record2004: 1 record2016: 1 record2020: 18 records2022: 5 records2023: 13 records2024: 6 records2025: 7 recordsEyewitness & visual reportsSparse, ad-hocDominant sensor modality →19501960197019801990200020102020
records / year disclosure milestone no standing programhover bars & dots for detail
19441969

USAF investigation era

123records

Sign · Grudge · Blue Book · Eyewitness & visual reports.

19692017

No standing public program

27records

≈40-year record gap · Sparse, ad-hoc.

20172026

Modern disclosure era

49records

AATIP · UAPTF · AARO · Military infrared / sensor data (Mideast theaters).

Declassification interval

199 dated records
72 yr
median lag
82 yr
longest held

Interval between incident date and public release, by occurrence decade: 1940s records, ~78 years; 2020s records, ~3.5.

18 records carry an explicit “Declassified on” stamp; the rest are measured to this 2026 release — an accurate floor, since they are first surfacing now.

Average lag by occurrence decade
400s78.3 yr
500s71.7 yr
600s59.1 yr
700s52.8 yr
800s40.5 yr
900s33.3 yr
000s23.5 yr
100s10 yr
200s3.5 yr
Lag distribution — and what it does and doesn’t mean
0–10 yr49
10–20 yr1
20–30 yr2
30–40 yr3
40–50 yr3
50–60 yr18
60–70 yr17
70–80 yr103
80+ yr3

The lags pile up near 70–80 years (the mid-century records) with a second cluster near zero (the modern releases) — the same bimodal split as the corpus.Read it carefully: for all but 18 records the lag is measured to this single 2024–25 release, so it largely reflects how old the event is plus the fact that everything surfaced in one recent disclosure — not a per-case decision to keep each file secret for exactly that long. Only the 18with an explicit “Declassified on” stamp isolate a true case-by-case withholding time.